Fifty Years Ago Today : Nuclear War and the Importance of Becoming a Multi-Planet Civilization

Fifty ears ago today, the American people, and indeed the rest of the world, learned that humanity was under the distinct and very real threat of sudden, immediate and total nuclear annihilation when President John F. Kennedy addressed the nation regarding the unfolding Cuban Missile Crisis.

While the crisis  was ultimately resolved peacefully, events might just have easily taken a different, unimaginably tragic turn for even the most mundane of reasons.

One of the most peculiar aspects of human nature is the tendency that having once averted a disaster,  we soon forget just how close the call,  and before long resume going about our daily business as if nothing happened.  When it happens again, we are both surprised and unprepared.  Thus it is, that fifty years to the day after that first, public brush with  Armageddon, nuclear weapons are proliferating in the planet’s most politically unstable regions, even as the industrialized world  finds itself in a long twilight struggle against a strain of religious  extremism which sanctions the attempted assassination of a 14 year old girl for committing the crime of freedom of expression.

Quite simply, the world is probably just as dangerous as place to be as it was fifty year ago today, and in some ways the threats are even worse because they come from so many different directions.   All of which should serve as a reminder of why space exploration and settlement is so very important.  The moment humanity is able to establish a permanent  presence elsewhere in the solar system,  the threat begins to recede, even if ever so slightly.   It may be that there is no higher victory possible than extending the realm of peaceful civilization beyond the reach of those seek to destroy it, and in the process render the whole exercise pointless.

The effort begins with one simple goal from which all others follow;  substantially lowering the costs of reaching orbit.  Fifty years to the date after the President which launched us to the Moon almost destroyed (or saved)  the Earth, depending on your perspective,  the economics of expendable launch vehicles have changed little from those which would have rained down nuclear destruction on both the Soviet Union and the United States.

Viewed in the context of a long,  slow race into the solar system  between the twin impulses of human civilization,  construction and destruction, those launch systems which hold to the status quo,  not actively pursuing a path towards lowering the costs to orbit, may be impeding much more than additional science or increased commerce.   Today, there is one notable exception, but hopefully others will soon follow. It cannot come soon enough.  A point worth considering, at least once per year, on the anniversary of a day which almost ended it all.

Oh, and for anyone looking for something to watch on television this evening; even in a weak economy, foreign policy matters.

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2 Comments on "Fifty Years Ago Today : Nuclear War and the Importance of Becoming a Multi-Planet Civilization"

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  1. ken anthony says:

    substantially lowering the costs of reaching orbit

    While it’s understandable that people focus on cost to orbit, this is only half of the business equation. You can’t leave out ROI.

    The cost of putting people in orbit can easily be reduced from $20m to $2m per person simply by sending more of them at a time (about 3 or 4 dozen using FH. Something like a stretch Dragon would be required.) But even at $2m (and add the cost of a spacesuit) per person, it may never be affordable for colonists to migrate. Focussing on cost to orbit is putting the cart before the horse because higher flight rates and companies in competition will bring down those costs without any top down fretting about it.

    Repeating for emphasis, it may never be affordable for colonists to migrate. This means no colonization at all. Governments putting a few workers at a base does not lead to general colonization (which requires a profit motive.)

    But there is a solution.

    It is possible for anyone to colonize another rock at no cost to them, zero, with a colonization plan that takes advantage of the only asset shown so far to cover all the costs. It may cost as much as $100m per person to put a colonist on mars. A transportation company could receive as much as a billion dollars per colonist (nine trillion dollars profit if they reach Musks goal of 10,000 colonists.) Trillions of dollars in profit for multiple companies at today’s costs. Realizing that should be motivation for many new companies to be established for the purpose of colonization. There is no shortage of volunteers.

    Two of the problems with the Space Settlement Initiative is they require the blessing of government and the colonists are treated as chattel. The colonists are risking their lives and deserve a plan that gives them assets to live their lives as free independent people. A single one sq. km. land claim provides them with a million dollars of assets to use over their lifetime. As Thomas Sowell points out, private land ownership is the central and primary requirement for economic growth of any society.

  2. 4tion8 says:

    substantially lowering the costs of reaching orbit

    While it’s understandable that people focus on cost to orbit, this is only half of the business equation. You can’t leave out ROI.

    The cost of putting people in orbit can easily be reduced from $20m to $2m per person simply by sending more of them at a time (about 3 or 4 dozen using FH. Something like a stretch Dragon would be required.) But even at $2m (and add the cost of a spacesuit) per person, it may never be affordable for colonists to migrate. Focussing on cost to orbit is putting the cart before the horse because higher flight rates and companies in competition will bring down those costs without any top down fretting about it.

    Repeating for emphasis, it may never be affordable for colonists to migrate. This means no colonization at all. Governments putting a few workers at a base does not lead to general colonization (which requires a profit motive.)

    But there is a solution.

    It is possible for anyone to colonize another rock at no cost to them, zero, with a colonization plan that takes advantage of the only asset shown so far to cover all the costs. It may cost as much as $100m per person to put a colonist on mars. A transportation company could receive as much as a billion dollars per colonist (nine trillion dollars profit if they reach Musks goal of 10,000 colonists.) Trillions of dollars in profit for multiple companies at today’s costs. Realizing that should be motivation for many new companies to be established for the purpose of colonization. There is no shortage of volunteers.

    Two of the problems with the Space Settlement Initiative is they require the blessing of government and the colonists are treated as chattel. The colonists are risking their lives and deserve a plan that gives them assets to live their lives as free independent people. A single one sq. km. land claim provides them with a million dollars of assets to use over their lifetime. As Thomas Sowell points out, private land ownership is the central and primary requirement for economic growth of any society.

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